We watch every live market.
We tell you which ones are mispriced.
Real-time tracking across Polymarket and Kalshi. Public ledger. Every call logged, scored, and explained.
What we're watching right now
Ours is public. Theirs isn’t yet.
Brier skill score, calibration curve, per-regime edge, and hit rate per confidence bucket — updated on every resolution. Institutional products hide their reasoning. We publish ours.
Three layers. One edge.
Dark Horses
The hook
High-payoff opportunities the market is underpricing.
- +5×–20× payoff scenarios
- +Real edge, not hype
- +Ranked by opportunity score
Capital Protection
The discipline
Don't blow up your bankroll.
- +Kelly-optimal sizing
- +Risk of ruin per trade
- +Volatility-aware recommendations
Market Intelligence
The moat
Understand why the market is wrong.
- +Contract rule parsing
- +Signal analysis (news, flow, momentum)
- +Invalidation conditions
What every pick looks like
Not a hunch. A structured breakdown you can evaluate.
US–Iran peace deal signed by April 22
- → Diplomatic signal detected 2h ago (FLOW)
- → Rule asymmetry on "signed agreement" (SPINE)
- → Cross-market price mismatch (ARBITER)
Official denial released before April 22 deadline.
Today's 3 mispriced markets — in your inbox, every morning.
One dark horse. One best-value play. One gated third pick. One deep analysis.
Edge, payoff, EV, Kelly sizing, risk of ruin, and invalidation conditions — fully explained.
Most high-payoff trades will lose. The edge comes from discipline, not frequency.
lobi.bet is an intelligence product, not a betting platform. We show wins and losses. Not financial advice.