GDP growthLive on Global
Q2 real GDP print clears the policy-sensitive threshold set by consensus.
China regional lane
China-adjacent forecast markets.
Probability forecasts on markets where Chinese economic, political, and regional events drive outcomes. Data-first. No editorial voice.
Coverage lanes: macro, trade, AI policy, property stress, cross-strait risk.
Market framing: public venues first, probability layer second, no outcome advocacy.
Publication rule: timestamped, scored, and auditable against the live ledger.
Coverage snapshot
Neutral market framing
Desk base
Tokyo-hosted research surface
Tracked lanes
Macro, trade, AI, property, FX, cross-strait
Publication mode
Signals, scorecards, and public ledger
Venue context
Polymarket, Kalshi, and other public markets
Category Matrix
China-relevant markets in a dense operating grid.
Each card shows one coverage lane, one concrete market structure, and whether the lane is already present on the global board.
Tariffs + tradeLive on Global
US-China tariff schedule changes before the next customs implementation window.
AI capabilityComing soon
A mainland model reaches a benchmark milestone under revised compute controls.
Property sectorComing soon
A major developer restructuring triggers a central or provincial policy response.
Taiwan risk ladderLive on Global
Cross-strait event markets expressed as dated probability forecasts, not intent claims.
RMB-USD bandComing soon
Managed-float pressure pushes USD/CNY into an intervention-sensitive band.
Operator Lens
For desks running China exposure.
The focus is event coverage and translation layers. We surface the market structure; we do not prescribe trades.
Desk-specific context
Selic-to-PBOC translation for desks mapping EM policy spillover into China-sensitive books.
HKEX event-contract context for listings, capital flows, and policy-linked repricing windows.
Iron ore and copper lanes where PRC policy shifts alter commodity-sensitive macro assumptions.
Sample signal
PRE-LAUNCH
Sample structure
MarketPBOC lowers 1Y LPR by >10bp in Q2
Published price41.0%
Lobi probability58.0%
Edge+17.0 pts
Confidence0.72 / EDGE
Sample structure only. See /track-record for the live ledger.
Regulatory tone
On Taiwan and regional sensitivity
Lobi publishes probability forecasts on markets that already exist on Polymarket, Kalshi, and other venues.
We do not take editorial positions on outcomes, including Taiwan-related markets.
If you find coverage here objectionable, we welcome written feedback; we will not self-censor probability data that is already public.
FAQ
Distribution, access, and payment questions.
English-first copy with bilingual prompts where helpful.
Does Lobi publish from mainland China? / Lobi 会在中国大陆发布吗？
No. Lobi is data-hosted from Tokyo and published as a global information product.
Is this legal for Chinese users? / 中国用户使用是否合法？
Lobi is an information product for readers globally. Access and use depend on the reader's jurisdiction.
Can I pay in RMB? / 可以用人民币支付吗？
Not currently. USD is supported, BRL is available via Pix, and crypto payment options are listed on /pricing.
What about VPN users? / 使用 VPN 的用户呢？
The same information product is visible to any reader. Jurisdictional responsibility remains with the user.
CTA
Use the global board for live tagged coverage.
China-sensitive lanes remain part of the broader macro surface until deeper regional coverage ships.